“2020 Hispanics and President Trump”
By political and scientific polling, President Donald J. Trump will receive about 22-25 percent of male Hispanic voters in the 2020 Presidential election; he will, however, be fortunate if he receives 15 percent of Hispanic women votes.
In other words, President Trump, will be slaughtered by the largest ethnic minority group in America.
South Florida Cubans will repeat 2016 giving Trump a majority vote. Other than Cubans, however, no other Hispanic group will vote for Trump.
Is this because Hispanics hate Trump? No, it’s because Trump hates Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, the two largest groups of the 61million+ Hispanics. 65 percent of all Hispanics claim Mexican-origin, nine percent are Puerto Rican.
It is my guess that New York parochially-raised Donald Trump had no idea that his insults at Mexicans affected so many.
Underlying Trump’s dislike of Mexicans and Puerto Rico (based on his treatment of Puerto Rico after devastating storms) is a profound hate by elements of the Republican Party in California and Arizona.
A decade ago, after almost 20 years of suicide by stupidity, the California Republican Party came, I thought, to its senses and abandoned the anti-Hispanic trail to oblivion that originated in former governor Pete Wilson’s 1994 reelection campaign.
Hispanics were delighted when former San Diego Mayor and United States Senator Pete Wilson humbled San Francisco’s Democrat Mayor Dianne Feinstein in the 1990 governor’s race. He had done well by them as Mayor of San Diego, a top-ten Hispanic city and as a California United States Senator. He made sure illegal farm workers qualified for amnesty in the 1986 Immigration Control Act of 1986 (IRCA).
Financial disasters hit the new Wilson California Administration in 1991-92. New Governor Wilson blamed all “immigrants” for draining the state treasury. When challenged, this future Presidential candidate said he meant “illegal immigrants,” not legal immigrants.
In conservative Orange County white supremacists and white nationalist Mexican-haters drew up a Save Our State (SOS) petition to place a constitutional amendment on the 1994 California ballot that would expel children from public school who couldn’t prove that “both parents” were legal residents/citizens even if the children themselves were American citizens. It also would have prohibited hospitals that accepted federal funding from treating “anyone” including children for anything other than an emergencies if both parents weren’t legal.
What frightened educated people, was that determinations of legality would not be made by trained immigration officers or judges but by school and hospital clerks. Also, there was no appeal mechanism.
The SOS petition was going nowhere when Pete Wilson decided he would support the petition with cash so the proposition would make the ballot. He could then run for reelection crusading for Proposition 187. And, run for President in 1996.
Wilson’s California Republican Party dumped $350,000 into the petition campaign. Proposition 187 made the ballot and Pete Wilson embraced it to reelect himself.
The campaign was brutal. What could be more American than to be against illegal aliens? Despite overwhelming white and black support for Prop.187 Hispanics did not support it.
In front of a California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce meeting, Wilson drew cheers and applause for his support of the new NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. Wilson advisors had told Wilson that Hispanics supported Prop. 187 by 75 percent. When he promoted it in front of the Hispanic Chamber, he was stunned by shocking silence. They rejected Wilson’s support of Prop. 187. I was there.On Election Day over 70 percent of California’s Hispanics voted against Prop.187.
Two things happened: Hundreds of thousands of Mexicans traded in their “green cards” and became U.S. citizens. California Hispanics turned left politically and started voting Democrat with a vengeance. George W. Bush slowed that; he revived Hispanic Republicans temporarily.
Then came “Son” of Proposition 187, Arizona’s SB 1070 which closely resembled Proposition187’s police state which courts found unconstitutional. SB 1070 was created and passed into law by Arizona Republicans; voters later threw them out of office.
It is Déjà vu all over again.
So, the California Republican Party met in San Diego in 2010. A resolution to support Arizona’s SB 1070 was introduced. It died in committee for lack of a second. I was there. It did pass the Arizona legislature, but the United States Supreme Court killed most of it.
Then came Donald J. Trump’s hit on Mexicans on June 16, 2015, when he announced for President; then the Wall, then he was slapped around by the diminutive Mexican President who announced Trump lied to Americans about the Mexican telling Trump Mexico would not pay for Trump’s wall. Trump: shoot illegal aliens at border.
It’s Deja Vu all over again. Mexicans voted en masse and retired Arizona Republicans who tried to legislate an anti-Mexican pogrom, SB1070; Mexicans will vote hugely against Donald Trump even more that they did in 2016. So will Puerto Ricans. That is my prediction.