“California’s Millions of Hispanic Votes Will Not Go to Trump”


Seven million seven hundred thousand California Hispanic/Latinos are eligible to vote in 2020. Will they? Will any vote for President Trump, any at all?
In 2012, 11.2 million hispanics were nationally eligible to vote for
President. California, alone, has 7.7 million Hispanics eligible to vote in the coming Presidential election. The eligible California Hispanic/Latino potential Presidential vote today is 68.75% of the estimated 2012 national Hispanic vote.
The eligible Hispanic voter pool is growing massively, not only in California but in the nation. It is, however, the largest in California.
In a word, the California potential Hispanic vote is gigantic compared to, say, New Hampshire or Delaware or the votes in several other states. To be specific, Latino Decisions polled for the Latino Community Foundation and arrived at the potential 7.7 million eligible 2020 Latino voters; it concluded that 74 percent of the 7.7 million — 5.698 million — of those eligible assert they will, in fact, vote in the March Primary.
Based on past California Latino voting, specifically in 1994 on the vote of the anti-immigrant nativist sponsored Proposition 187, 80% or more of projected 2020 Hispanic votes will be cast against President Trump regardless of who his opponents are. In other words, 20 percent, an estimated 1.1396 million California Hispanics might vote for President Trump with 4.5584 million California Hispanics voting against him.
While the 1.1396 possible votes for Trump among California Hispanics sounds like a lot compared to the votes he will receive in Vermont, in California that number is nothing; those votes will not affect California’s 55 Electoral Votes in any way as winner-takes-all.
President Trump will lose California by a historic margin of more than 4 million votes. President Trump’s mythical base cannot save him in California. Nonetheless, he will scour California for money to spend elsewhere. He will probably complain, as he did after 2016, that massive numbers of illegal aliens voted against him. That, he says, is the only reason Clinton won the popular vote.
There is no argument by scholars, politicos or commentators that Trump will lose California by a huge amount, but there are views that such a huge loss will continue eroding California Republican congressional representation. 2018’s Blue Wave wiped out Republican congressmen in Orange County and left Los Angeles County barren of Republican congressional presence. San Diego County was left with but one Republican representative, Duncan Hunter.
He has been indicted by a federal grand jury for illegally spending campaign funds on personal expenses. Despite the indictment, Hunter managed to hold on to the seat in 2018. Ten years ago, Republicans held three of the five congressional seats in San Diego County. Today, Duncan Hunter is the only Republcian and he goes to criminal trial in January. There is a good chance Democrats will win that seat with a lightweight candidate who lost by 7,000 votes in 2018.
If Trump loses San Diego County with its one million+ Mexican Americans by a massive amount, can Republicans hold on to the 50th Congressional District currently held by a man under criminal indictment whose wife has already plead guilty?
Probably not. There is only one chance the GOP can hang onto the 50th, that is the election of Darrell Issa, longtime Republcian ,Congressman who represented South Orange County and Coastal San Diego County, a seat he won in 2000 and held until he retired in 2018. His Republican seat was one of those lost by the GOP to the Democrat wave of 2018.
Rep. Duncan Hunter cannot win. Another Republican, former one term San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, ran for San Diego mayor and couldn’t attract any minority votes — other than some Gay vote — to speak of and, though, the 50th is primarily a semi-rural white (81%) Congressional district, 24.47% are registered Independents, 27% Democrat and 42% Republican. Mexican voters are a majority in the district’s largest city, Escondido and are 29.7% of the district. American Indian voters in seven large Indian reservations in the district provide 1.5% of voters. Registered independents or “Decline to state” voters are close to second in district voter numbers.
If Darrell Issa can shake his perceived closeness to President Trump, he can hold the 50th, maybe. Otherwise, California and 50th district Hispanic voters will deliver not only the state to President Trump’s opponent but they will also deliver the remaining Republican congressional seat in Ronald Reagan’s “lucky” California County to Democrats, forever.