“Hispanic Voting Power”
After every presidential election, analysis of the Hispanic Presidential vote is looked at by people ill prepared to analyze the Hispanic vote because they know little about Hispanics.
The 2020 Census:
There are 62.1 million Hispanics in the US. That’s 19% of the U.S. population, one in five Americans.
The top three Hispanic states are California with 15.6 million Hispanics, 39% of the state. Texas with 11.4 million, 39% and Florida with 5.7 million, 26%.
The candidate that wins two of these three states wins the election normally; exception, 2020.
Note: 42% of Hispanics over 25 have some college in 2019 compared to 36% in 2010. Degrees have increased from 2010’s 13% to 18% in 2020.
Understand this: Mexican-origin people are the largest Hispanic group. The 2020 Census reports that of the 62.1 million Hispanics, 61.5% are of Mexican origin, 37.5 million.
The final 2020 Census number that is important for voting analysis is that four in five Hispanics are United States citizens, mostly U.S. born.
Hispanics are America’s youngest group. 30 is the median age of the 62.1 million Hispanics, with the median age of 26 for the 37 million plus of Mexican- origin.
Hispanic voters tend to vote in smaller percentages because young people don’t vote anywhere as much as people over 40 do.
The Hispanic median age of 30 is much lower than whites — 44, with the most common age among whites — 58, while the most common Hispanic age is 11.
So how did Hispanics vote in 2020? Did they tsunami for Donald Trump as he states, or not?
Susan Crabtree of Real Clear Politics wrote:
“Trump won 38% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, a 10-percentage-point increase from 2016 and far better than John McCain and Mitt Romney, the previous two GOP nominees for president.”
Is that true? No. The reliable Cato Institute says Trump garnered 32-35% of the 2020 exit polls, not 38%. Crabtree didn’t source the “38%.”
Fact: every Republican President since Richard Nixon – except Trump – that received 35% or more of the Hispanic vote has won the Presidency. Trump lost.
The McCain numbers shouldn’t even be mentioned as that election ended an 8-year GOP reign in the White House as Trump ended an 8-year long Democrat White House. Romney was defeated by a hurricane that hit New Jersey/New York days before the election.
Another mistake by Crabtree: the 2020 election had the smallest percentage of election day voters because of early voting and mail ballots. More Americans voted early (like me) in person than ever — 100 million people. Fewer than 50 million people voted on election day and everyone agrees that those people heavily voted Republican. Thus, false positive “exit polls.”
In some states, people could only vote by mail.
Thus, election day exit polls aren’t reliable.
Florida is a special case. It is populated by refugees from Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela and their families.
Trump lost Florida in 2016 but came back with a heavy Cuban/Nicaraguan/Venezuelan opposition to communist-socialist dictatorships vote. 38% of the Hispanic vote? In Florida, maybe.
Texas, on the other hand, is different. Why? The Hispanic population in Texas is almost exclusively of Mexican-origin.
In other words, the Tex-Mex is a totally different person.
Susan Crabtree wrote: “Trump increased his margin of victory by a whopping 19 to 55 points in 10 heavily Mexican American counties along the border.”
Big deal. Republican U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison carried the area to win a U.S.Senate seat in 1993 with 67% of the vote.
Besides, Crabtree forgot to mention that Texas has 258 counties. Most have tiny populations. Those border counties Trump carried are all tiny rural counties that grow things like welfare checks or cattle. 500 votes is a lot in such counties.
In contrast, the overall Mexican American population is 95% urban, not Texas rural.
Historically, Trump’s Hispanic vote hardly measures up to George W. Bush’s 50% of the Hispanic vote in Texas that reelected him Governor in 1998, or the 40-44% he received in his 2004 Presidential reelection nationally.
The political question is: Did Hispanics who voted for Donald Trump project more Hispanic support for the GOP in the future? Probably not.
With less than 25% of registered vote in California, the GOP has little chance of recovering what used to be a GOP paradise. None. Texas will turn Democrat for the 2032 Presidential election.
So, the GOP future is bleak in Texas, thus it is bleak nationally as long as it is identified with Donald J. Trump…Loser.