“Record Number of Women Running for Congress”
A record number of women are running for the House of Representatives this cycle; 490 so far in states where filing deadlines have passed. 190 of them are Republicans with another 38 announced with filing deadlines and primaries between now and August.
The 190 alone is a record for Republican women candidates surpassing the 2010 Tea Party year when 133 Republican women ran for the House.
Current polling shows that 59% of polled women prefer Democrats to Republicans for House seats and far more women are planning to vote against Donald Trump. There are many knowledgeable people that think Trump will do worse with Hispanic voters than he did in 2016, thus more Hispanic women will probably vote against Trump than did in 2016 wiping out the Trump votes of men. 67% of Hispanic women voters voted against Trump in 2016.
So, where does that leave us with Senators Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, Joni Ernst Republican of Iowa and Martha McSally of Arizona, all running against men.
Collins and Ernst should be reelected but McSally, the first woman combat pilot in American history looks like she will lose to another retired military officer, space veteran Mark Kelly, Captain, U.S. Navy (ret), husband to former congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) who survived a murderer’s bullet several years ago in Arizona.
Will women stick with Collins, Ernst and McSally or will women voting against Donald Trump drag these women Senators down in their down-ballot votes? Suburban Republican women dumped their normal Republican voting pattern in 2018, will they do the same this Presidential election year?
Another question is, what will Hispanic women do? We know they voted overwhelmingly – 67% – against Trump in 2016. We know that polling shows that Hispanic women will vote hugely against Trump this year even as Hispanic men will vote for Trump in larger numbers than Hispanic women. Will any Hispanic women vote for Republican women congress people running for the House or the Senate?
There are few Hispanics in Maine, thus Collins isn’t affected. But Hispanic women voters are numerous in Arizona so Senator McSally is directly affected. There aren’t many in Iowa so Senator Ernst isn’t affected, but, her problem could be that Republican Representative Steven King’s big racist mouth may affect her race by drawing a huge anti-racist, anti-white supremacist and anti-white nationalist vote out to beat down Congressman King’s reelection. If they vote against Republican King, will they also vote for a Democrat for the Senate?
One would think that Iowa Republican women aren’t dumb enough to vote a party ticket but one never knows. The question for Senator Ernst is, is Iowa a state where cosmopolitan educated ticket splitting runs rampant or not.
Senator McSally’s situation is dire. Hispanic women aren’t famous for splitting their votes. That requires levels of sophistication Arizona Mexican women haven’t yet reflected in my experience. In McSally’s case the normal split of men voting Republican more than Hispanic women might save her. Being the first woman combat pilot will appeal more to Hispanic men for they are far more likely to have served in the military, percentage wise, than non-Hispanic men/women and Hispanic women.
The Department of Defense reports that 18 percent of United States Marines are Hispanic, mostly all of Mexican origin. Hispanic men appreciate military service. That might well serve Colonel Martha McSally, United States Air Force (ret) well in November.
O-ha-la! As Spanish-speakers say; or as Arab Muslims exclaim, In-shaw-lah, if God wills it.
Arab Muslims? Yes, because Colonel McSally sued the Department of Defense (McSally v. Rumsfeld) because it made her wear a full-body covering “abaya” when she served in Saudi Arabia away from her duty required uniform. She refused to wear an abaya, she sued because the Air Force rule was “discriminatory” and she won. That’s my kind of colonel. If for no other reason, she deserves to win that Arizona Senate seat.